>> The probability that Arnold will win is...0.75   2003-10-08 07:56 Alex Robson

A while ago I wrote a post on US DOD proposals to use markets in the "war on terror" to predict the likelihood of terrorist attacks. Here's another interesting application where we get to test the market's accuracy. According to the latest market odds, Arnold should win today's California recall.

 But the probability that Arnold will lose is...0.25 -- Clever Dick 2003-10-08
 But the probability that Arnold will lose is...0.25 -- Alex Robson 2003-10-08
 The probability that Alex will lose is 1 -- Clever Dick 2003-10-08
 The probability that Alex will lose is 1 -- Strawman 2003-10-09
 The probability that Alex will lose is 1 -- Steve C 2003-10-10
 The probability that Alex will lose is 1 -- Joseph Carr 2003-10-08
 The probability that Arnold will win is...0.75 -- paul 2003-10-08

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