North Korean Update: Chinese Take over?

Source: Strategy page
http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/korea/articles/20080929.aspx

“The Chinese plan to install pro-Chinese North Koreans as head of a new “North Korean” government, and institute the kind of economic reforms they have been urging the North Korean to undertake for over a decade. The Chinese do not want North Korea to merge with South Korea, nor do they want North Korea to collapse (and send millions of starving refugees into northern China. China and South Korea both want North Korea to stay independent, and harmless.”

You know the world is in a bad way when China become an agent for increasing freedom!

6 thoughts on “North Korean Update: Chinese Take over?

  1. I wouldn’t take that source very seriously.

    Still, if it’s true it might be an improvement. A semi-market economy in which everyone has enough to eat is an improvement on a strict command economy in which people are starving.

    Chinese regional hegemony is also fragile. Look at Tibet and the Uighurs. They only keep a lid on Hong Kong and Macau because Beijing stays out of their affairs. It will probably take a couple of decades, but I expect China will eventually fracture along ethnic and regional lines.

  2. David,

    At least for HK and Macau, I think you’re confusing dislike of the government versus dislike of being part of CHina. I think you’ll find most people living in HK and Macau are happy to be part of China, it’s just the government they don’t especially like. As for Tibetans, I think the have no hope, as the Chinese will simply do what they’ve done everywhere else, which assimilate them, and perhaps in 50 years they’ll have arguments like we do with Aboriginals now.

  3. I think you’ll find most people living in HK and Macau are happy to be part of China, it’s just the government they don’t especially like.

    I disagree. I think most are happy to describe themselves as Chinese, but that doesn’t mean they want to be a part of the country. It’s a race versus nationality difference. There’s also the Cantonese vs Mandarin difference.

    China’s history is one of clan/race conflict. The Han became dominant mainly through military expansion. Tibet has showed that’s no longer palatable.

  4. I think we need data to get further on your first statement. I also think there’s a big difference between wanting to split into different countries versus, say, be automonous (the second of which I can imagine — there are already such areas — in addition, most provinces essentially are already — the Central government is responsible for surprisingly little in China).

    Alternatively, I’m sure we don’t need it on Tibet — unless you want to argue that China won’t be able to assimilate them out of existence. Sure the Tibetans might want their own country, just like all the other minority groups in the world do — it just isn’t very likely. The obvious scenario is that China will simply make sure there is a Han majority living there (some for more than one generation), and once that happens, its pretty much over.

  5. Heres my opinion,
    “The Chinese plan to install pro-Chinese North Koreans as head of a new “North Korean”
    Like all other Koreans, Kim Jong-il is fiercely nationalist. He does not trust foreigners, Chinese included. China was working for a solution to the nuclear crisis, yet Kim gave Beijing the middle finger by conducting two nuclear tests pre-Olympics.

    “The Chinese do not want North Korea to merge with South Korea”
    If the North Korea is reunited it will effectivy knock out their economy for at least 30 years…

    “nor do they want North Korea to collapse (and send millions of starving refugees into northern China.”
    An neither do the Russians …We have a joke that if North Korea collapses, we hope they dont turn up on the russian border or they will wonder what all the big fuss is about Capitalism 😉

    The Japan and UK take orders from the US. Their policies are much more coherent with those of Washington. American interests are deeply important to both countries. You don’t see any of the above in China/North Korea

  6. Whilst I would disagree that ‘they take orders’, I would agree that Japan and Great Britain are more likely to go along with America. As is Australia.

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