Not Just a Blip

After last week’s Newspoll showed massive swings against Rudd – and the Coalition ahead on two-party preferred – there were some suggestions the poll results may have been a statistical blip. But the latest Nielsen poll seems to back it up: Rudd is in free-fall. At this rate, and with Centrebet odds against the Coalition tumbling, will Rudd even survive as leader until the next election?

In other news, the Libs may be recruiting Singo to handle their campaign.

30 thoughts on “Not Just a Blip

  1. What surprised me in the poll numbers was the extent to which the tax on “super profits” failed to resonate with the punters. More opposed the tax than supported it and the campaign against it is yet to begin.

    An unpopular PM will go long so it should be a late election. However it is hard to see anything that might turn the tide even with more time. Rudds political fortune requires an externally created crisis. Perhaps a major natural disaster or some such thing.

  2. Fleeced:

    I took 4’s and change on centrebet for the libs some time ago, but I’m worried I may lose it as Rudd could be gone by the end of the month.

    Here’s hoping he stays on.

  3. Yeah, I placed a bet just under $4 myself, but like you, am worried I’ll lose it if Rudd goes before then. Tomorrow night’s budget announcement of a dental plan might make him last a bit longer.

  4. However, people also need to like the other side before they’ll throw out the government. Is Abbott likeable enough that people want him, or will accept him, for Prime Minister?

  5. Nuke, you’re right of course, but at this stage I’d drag a lifer out of maximum security to be PM rather than Charlie Rudd.

  6. I’ve spoken to many Labor supporters who hate Rudd enough to vote for Abbott – even though they don’t particularly like him either. Rudd had such a good run before the last election that nobody really knew who he was – they just wanted Howard gone. Now they see who Rudd is, and they don’t like what they see.

  7. I wish we had optional preferential.

    I want to vote for minor parties, but given a choice between a giant douche and a turd sandwich I don’t know how to preference.

  8. Speaking as someone who only takes a very casual interest in day to day Australian politics, the overwhelming impression the Rudd government has given out over the last 6 months or so is incompetence. It’s hard to see what could come up to correct that. However we should remember that the Labor Party has largely been holding fire on Tony Abbott so far. Closer to the election expect to see him get hammered on past positions such as suggesting the reintroduction of at-fault divorce, which are likely to hurt him with swinging voters.

  9. Jc- I think I will. Unless Gillard takes over as leader. Gillard has shown herself to be competent and often open-minded to ideas that are opposed to her ideology. I think she MIGHT be a better choice than either Rudd or Abbott.

    Or I might just vote as the constitution actually intended and base my vote on my local members and the Senators in question. Conroy’s being put last on my Senate ticket, that’s for sure.

  10. Gillard? I was under the impression she’s the real ‘red in the bed’ of that mob and a principled lefty.

  11. Gillard’s a lefty alright… though she hasn’t been as rabid as I thought she would prior to the last election.

    More importantly though, she has an annoying voice.

  12. If she painted her hair black instead of red, she’d be a dead ringer for Tina Fey.

    The problem for her is what she does with the toyboy hairdresser boyfriend.

  13. She is a lefty, but I’d rather an open-minded lefty than a closed-minded conservative.

    When visiting the USA I remember she was looking at charter schools and voucher schemes- something that seems to have been duplicated in some of the TAFE changes.

    Not all bad from a “red in the bed”.

  14. Given the choice of Krudd/Guillard, Abbott/Bishop ticket it is tough to choose whether to secede from the commonwealth or just end it all now. However how about a Bishop/Hockey combo(or the other way around), might just make life bearable for a little longer. This combo might also have some extra voter appeal

  15. Bishop is useless – she’s only managed to survive because she’s a woman. And Hockey is such a fake, that he’s potentially little better than Rudd.

  16. EconTalk had a podcast recently about education in America. It included a lot of comentary on what a disappointment charter schools had been in practice. I think I know what makes a good school and it has little to do with the funding model or the ownership arrangements. To create a good school you need to situate it in a community that has lots of parents that think that the education of their children is really important. Everything else is window dressing.

  17. There’s only one thing I know for certain: Rudd has to go. Who he gets replaced by is an incredibly depressing thought exercise given the available alternatives.

  18. Yes I’m curious about Gillard. She’s clearly smart and runs rings around Rudd. I’m not sure I trust her to have completely changed her spots – when she was younger she was a pretty radical commie, but some of her educations reforms have been decidely right wing.

    If she takes over from Rudd, will we have another 180 degree turn like Rudd’s ‘fiscal conservatism’

  19. The schools fiasco still has to stick. She managed to get the auditor general to cheat on the principal poll to show that they were satisfied.

    I think she’s created more damage than Rudd, but it hasn’t really come out as yet.

  20. Yes, I’m thinking the Opposition will have to go in hard in pinning the BER fiasco on Gillard (as they did with batts on Garrett) just to prevent a leadership change before the election.

  21. Lindsay Tanner has been giving me the absolute shits lately. I’ve had the misfortune of catching him on TV for a minute or two. That’s all I could take.

    I don’t see why Gillard is smart….. But I suppose if you compare her to Krudd.

  22. Isn’t he a miserable lying dick? He pumps out the venom better than anyone on that side. I can’t stand him. He’s now taking accolades for the changes in super they made pretending they are paying for them when it has to be employer funded.

    I wish the libs simply got rid of the dick by not running a spot in Melbourne Ports and telling their voters to go for the greens.

  23. Christ Australian politics is depressing, this is the reason I dont follow it. It’s a perennial 3-way tug of war between Right-wing authoritarians, Left-wing authoritarians, and fucking bright-Red unionists. It’s possible Gillard could do well. Let’s not forget Hawke was head of the ACTU before leading probably the best government of the last 30 years.

  24. But they’re in denial about it!

    Perhaps, instead of the clumsy title anarchocapitalists, we can use agorocratists- market-power!

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