The election outcome is causing all sorts of silliness. First we had the ‘voters decided that they didn’t want either party’ line, which was transparently silly but widely repeated. Now we have the ‘more voters want the independents to support Labor’ line based on a Fairfax poll.
The poll had 37% wanting The Three to support Labor, 31% wanting them to support the Coalition, and 26% wanting another election. The 26% is the issue. What percentage of these guys would vote for the Coalition on a 2PP basis?
It seems very likely that Labor and Greens voters would prefer not to have another election because they think they will lose. Current polling says they would. The Greens in particular would probably prefer to lock in the protest vote — there are no guarantees they’ll do as well next time. It’s also far more embarrassing for Labor to lose after they risked so much. Tony Abbott can happily sit in opposition and bask in the glory of his massive swing. If Gillard is turfed she will earn a place amongst the great embarrassments of Australian politics. She may not even get another go.
It’s not that I care — I don’t hold a brief for the Coalition. In any case forming government will probably seem like a very bad idea in a year or so when the power goes to Katter’s head and he loses it completely. I just think political debate is poor enough without this kind of dishonest interpretation of polling.